Friday, July 10, 2015

Many shades of risk

"The wise are instructed by reason, average minds by experience, the stupid by necessity and the brute by instinct -  Marcus Tullius Cicero"



Unlike the hound of the Baskervilles, dogs are barking everywhere when it comes to risk in this turbulent world. You have geopolitical risk that brews in the South China Sea, Middle East and Eastern Europe. The risk on the Euro from the whole Greek drama, the consequences to the world economy of the US initiating an upward interest rate cycle, the unstable situation in large emerging economies like Brazil, Russia and Turkey. And China's transition to a new economic paradigm .To all of this markets reaction seems to be relatively sanguine. Like in the cartoon above, is it because of a framing issue? Or we just simply think that dogs that bark don’t bite?

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